Fearless prediction time

By Jeff Orvis

Tradition is a great thing. There are a lot of traditions in the world of sports, but maybe none so anticipated as Selection Sunday leading up to the NCAA Men's basketball championship. This past Sunday seemed like an eternity as I waited for the announcement of the 68 teams that made the tournament field. After church, there were a couple of conference championship games, some NASCAR and even a little golf to fill the time until 5 p.m.

In past years, fans of teams in Iowa had to wait to see if their teams qualified for the tourney. This year, it was a bit easier, since all teams had such special seasons, we knew they would all be included. The only suspense came in trying to guess where, when and who they would play in the first round.

Iowa State will kick off the action of local interest when the Cyclones play the University of Alabama-Birmingham on Thursday at 11:40 a.m. That game will be on TruTV, one of four networks carrying the tournament. The Cyclones play at Louisville, which should enable a lot of their incredible fan base to make the road trip. I am first and foremost a Hawkeye fan, but I have to admit that the best fans in the state, by far are the Iowa State fans. When CBS was broadcasting the Big 12 Tourney finals last week from Kansas City, Brent Musberger had one of the best lines I've heard all season when he observed, “The City of Ames is on its feet in Kansas City!” A friend who travels to Kansas City each year for the tournament observed that Interstate 35 should have been renamed Iowa State 35 on the day after the tournament.

Our other two state teams will be playing in Seattle. Northern Iowa, a darkhorse for a Final Four spot, will face Wyoming on Friday at 12:40 p.m. The game will be on TNT. Then at 6:20 p.m., Iowa faces Davidson, also on TNT. Winners from Thursday games will play their second round games on Saturday and the Friday winners play on Sunday.

In a strange twist, if both Iowa and Iowa State win their first two games, they will face each other next week. Don't ask me to explain this. For some unknown reason, the first round games in the South Region will be played in Charlotte, Portland, Louisville and Seattle. First round games in the East Region will be played in Pittsburgh, Columbus, Charlotte and Seattle.

Although it's fun to download brackets and make guesses on who will be the eventual winner, it has been several years since I've had the courage of entering any bracket pools. When I lived in Independence, I would join a community pool, conducted by the former city clerk. By the end of the first weekend, he would stop by my office and thank me for “my donation,” his not-so-subtle hint that I had made enough wrong choices to be well out of the running for the contest.

So while I no longer make the mistake of wagering, it's still fun to guess who might be playing in early April in Indianapolis. Rather than risk making a wrong pick, or the danger of an early upset, I've decided to predict only the first two rounds of the tourney in this writing.

The selection committee appears to have made some safe choices for the top four seeds in the field, as Kentucky, Wisconsin, Villanova and Duke should easily advance to the second round. Iowa, Iowa State and UNI should also be around for weekend play. But out of the first 32 games, there's usually at least one surprise. Based on no scientific reasoning but simply instinct, I am predicting Valparaiso over fourth seed Maryland and Texas over sixth seed Butler.

If our three local teams make it into the second round, I am hoping and predicting that all three will make it into the Sweet 16. That would mean UNI would probably have to upset Louisville and favored Iowa State would have to get by probable SMU. Iowa's advancement would be the biggest news of the second round, as they would no doubt have to beat second seed Gonzaga, which is entering the tourney with a super 32-2 record.

On Monday, the NCAA Women's Championship bracket was announced, which will mean a busy Friday. Iowa State will face Dayton at 11 a.m., followed by Iowa against American at 1:30 p.m. Both games will be on ESPN 2. With the aforementioned UNI and Iowa men's first round games, that means four games with local importance on Friday.

This is an exciting time of the year for those of us who still believe there is some worth in collegiate athletics. As you search the internet for brackets and schedules, keep in mind that most of them list Eastern Time Zone starting times.

I leave you with one true confession: I am glad I live by myself, because it might be a bit embarrassing to see an almost senior citizen get teary-eyed after the final horn of the championship game, as CBS plays “One Shining Moment” as the network shows a collage of highlights of the tourney.

Enjoy the next three weeks. Then we can quickly turn our attention to the Masters Golf Tourney and the Cubs' bid for a World Series appearance.

Belle Plaine is state tourney bound!

By Jeff Orvis

In a couple of days, the Belle Plaine boys' basketball team will begin a journey never seen in this town before. Being a relative newcomer to this city, I don't know how long we've had a high school here. I'm sure someone will be able to tell me. But in the several genrations there has been a high school in this town, there has never been a state boys basketball qualifier.

When I first heard this, I couldn't believe it. Belle Plaine has a proud athletic tradition. Of course, when folks think about sports and Belle Plaine, for many years it was the wrestling program that took centerstage. Heck, they even started penciling in a day off from school to coincide with the first round of the state wrestling tourney because there were often so many local qualifiers, there would have been a lot of empty classrooms if they had held school that day.

Other sports have had their moments of state glory over the years, including track, volleyball, football, golf, etc. But never a state tournament qualifier in basketball, despite some great players and coaches of the past.

So that makes this year even more special. The Plainsmen enter the tournament as the fourth seed, with an awesome 24-1 record. When they clinched the tourney berth, their reaction made the social media, for its understated celebration. It would have been understandable if the kids had swarmed the court and piled on each other in total jubilation. But while there were plenty of back slaps and high-fives, the team soon trotted off the court to the locker room. It was almost as, to a man, they were saying, “Okay, what's next?”

It would be totally understable if the team walked onto the court at Wells Fargo in Des Moines Monday afternoon, just happy to be there. But because of how they fought to establish this super record, including several exciting come-from-behind performances, it should surprise no one if they play several games in Des Moines.

I've been to the state tournament to cover teams in the past. I was telling someone that I remembered covering the Independence team one year when they advanced to the consolation game on Saturday. I also remembered covering the Independence St. John's team another time. I remembered two years, but in checking state records, I actually covered those teams a total of five times, three for the Mustangs and twice for the Eagles. I have an excuse for forgetting about those other three years. The last tourney I covered was 25 years ago!

My high school, Pleasant Valley, didn't qualify for state while I was there. But the Spartans have been there three times prior to this season, first in 1988, when they finished fourth, then in 2001 and in 2006, when they finished second. PV is back in the tourney field again, facing Cedar Rapids Kennedy in the first round. GO PV!!!

This year's Class 1A field is a strong one. The top seed, Gladbrook-Reinbeck, is 25-0. The second seed, Danville, is also undefeated. In fact, in other years, Danville was such a formidable opponent that it successfully petitioned the state association to allow it to play up a class in the tournament.

Earlham is the first round opponent for the Plainsmen. It enters the week with a 23-2 record and it is also a first-time state tourney qualifier.

I've had the privilege of seeing quite a few state qualifiers over the years of standing at the end of the court with a camera in hand. There's a different feel, a different temperment of state-caliber teams. The feeling spills over to the fan base, where the town buzz over a successful season erupts into a loud roar once the fans descend on Des Moines.

It's an exciting time for Belle Plaine. All of us are proud of what you have accomplished and wish the players, coaches, parents and fans a fun week ahead.

GO PLAINSMEN!!!

My thoughts on our tax system

By Jeff Orvis

Ever had the thought that if you could just stop time for an instant and fix things, life would be better? If you had the power to stop killing, find a cure for deadly diseases or perhaps go back in time and say some things to people who have come and gone from your life, things would be better.

Each year at this time, I think these things whenever I hear an ad on the radio for income tax preparation or see an interview with a tax consultant on what to do to ease a person's tax burden.There are even some misguided individuals who advocate the end of the Internal Revenue Service completely.

I'm a proud, card-carrying liberal. Many of us have been typecast as being in favor of taxes, as long as it's others who pay them. We are also supposed to be in favor of attorneys and accompanying lawsuits, as long as they are working for us. So I guess I don't exactly fit the mold of what others believe liberals are all about.

I am in favor of taxation and for more than 35 years, I paid my share of state and federal taxes while in the workforce. But even as I mailed off my tax returns and then anxiously watched the return mail for the next couple of months for that expected tax refund, I wondered what it would be like if I was rich enough to hire lawyers and accountants to shield a lot of my wealth from the government. Unfortunately, over the years, folks who thought the way I did were elected to state and national office, where it seems every year, they spend much of their time trying to decide not only how to spend the tax money collected, but how to cut taxes for some at the expense of others.

So I wonder what would happen if for just one moment, we could stop time and start all over with how we pay for the necessary services our government must provide. Yes, I am talking about a flat tax with no deductions. Anyone in the workforce making a minimum amount of money would pay the same percentage for taxes. There would be no deductions for medical expenses, mortgage payments, business losses, etc. If you made $500 in a week, the government would get the first cut. If you owned a store and you sold widgets, whatever those are, whatever profit you earned on the sale would be taxed the same as a factory worker, school teacher or corporate president. Although many members of Congress would like to dispute this, I'll bet if we suddenly had this system, we would all be amazed at what percentage we would all pay.

Many of us have had the dream of winning a big prize in a lottery or other such contest, with the thought that finally we might be able to help our less fortunate friends or relatives. But as I understand the current tax system, you are limited to how much you can give someone else before the government will come collecting an additional tax. If you pay the same percentage as if it was earned income when you first won the prize, isn't requiring an additional payment when you make a gift to someone double taxation?

Although I've made my case for equal taxation, there are two groups that come to mind that I would exempt from paying. Anyone on active duty in the armed forces should not have to pay income taxes. And anyone in retirement should also be exempt from income tax. Social Security payments should not be taxed. And anyone who has invested some of their money they have earned while working should not have any interest earnings taxed.

I realize that strict simplification of the tax system might cut into the profits of thousands of attorneys and accountants. We still need those people. I have had a couple of occasions to have contact with attorneys in the past few years and have been served well. And if I ever won the lottery, I would want to hire a good accountant to help me spend my winnings wisely. But I would still know that my winnings would be taxed fairly, without anyone trying to find ways to shield any of my winnings from government.

I am also not in favor of abolising the IRS. The agency would be drastically cut if the tax code was whittled down to a page or two. But there would still be need for a strong enforcement branch to make this theory work.

So I guess that's my “If I ruled the world” thought for today. Sometime I will entertain you on thoughts on what it would be like if I had the power to stop violence. But those theories are still a work in progress.

NFL Draft is big business

By Jeff Orvis

It's hard to believe that nearly a week has gone by since the Super Bowl. What started way back in August with the Hall of Fame preseason game ended on the first day of February. It was an okay game that wasn't decided until the final minute. While I was hoping Seattle would win, I wasn't totally dismayed with the win by the Patriots.

So now it would seem that we are left with six months before the start of the next football season. For hardcore NFL fans, there will be some hope in early May when Chicago hosts the NFL Draft. After those three days of determining well-paid human bondage, fans will have plenty to talk about before training camp.

Thanks to plenty of promotion by the league and wall-to-wall coverage by both ESPN and the NFL Network, the draft has turned into a real happening. City officials in Chicago are learning a little more each day just how big this event is. And amid reports of demands by the league on city officials, I hope they aren't sorry they won the right to host it.

Radio City Music Hall in New York has been the home of the draft for the past several years. But the league decided to give other cities a shot at hosting it and Chicago won this time around. According to a report this week in the Chicago Tribune, the draft isn't just a little TV show with a few hundred spectators. It is an event that will tie up a portion of the downtown for up to three weeks, complete with technical improvements to the old theater that will house the event to the tune of $100,000-$125,000, a pledge of police escorts for various league and team officials and draft prospects and the assurance that hundreds of hotel rooms will be available during the period.

The league is very protective of its brand. You are perhaps aware that there are strict rules about the use of the term “Super Bowl.” News accounts can refer to the championship game in this way, but supermarkets selling party foods for that day have to call it “the big game,” or something similar unless they pay royalties to the league. The NFL is also dictating what businesses can be open near the site of the draft and what products can be sold in view of the TV cameras covering the event. They had better be NFL-licensed products or the businesses can expect a visit from lawyers.

City officials are hoping that the exposure will be good for Chicago, that some youngster watching the draft from Belle Plaine, Iowa will convince his parents that the family needs to vacation in the Windy City. It is estimated the whole event, which will also include some sort of fan fair, concerts, etc., could cost up to $4 million. While the league and a Chicago organizing committee will pay part of the tab, the city could be liable for a good chunk of it. So there better be a few hundred thousand prospective vacationers impressed with what they see.

I am a big football fan. I hope my Bears can rebound and be a viable, championship-caliber team in a couple of years. But the league is facing plenty of problems, from poor behavior of some of its players, to the question of the long term effects of concussions on former players, to the lack of a pro team in Los Angeles and on and on. I just hope the league isn't using the draft as a smokescreen to make fans forget about these problems, for even a few days.

Accountability and responsibility

By Jeff Orvis

Christmas Day, 2014. A lot of words are associated with this time of year: Peace, Prosperity, Charity and probably several more. As I prepared to jot down a few thoughts this time, considering recent events, a couple of words came to mind: Accountability and Responsibility.

These two words are closely associated, if not always synonymous. We are taught we are to be held accountable for our actions. If we don't, there are others, usually those in authority wearing a badge and carrying a weapon, will be responsible for us. The young man who was shot by Ferguson, MO police allegedly did not take proper responsibility when he robbed a convenience store and, again allegedly, attack the officer. The young man who recently was shot by a policeman a few miles down the road from there again allegedly did not take proper responsibility when he pulled a gun on the officer.

Sometimes the accountability and responsibility is shared by both the public and the police, as what apparently happened on the streets of New York when a man allegedly resisted arrest and was subsequently killed in an illegal choke hold by a policeman while some of his fellow officers did little to stop the incident.

While the friends and relatives of those who lost their lives are still mourning their passing, don't you think the officers involved are also suffering to some extent? First there were the interviews by police internal affairs and the district attorneys and the mountains of reports to be filed. If you can safely assume that at least most of those officers entered that line of work to help people, what internal turmoil they must still be suffering, knowing that they took another life, regardless of the circumstances.

While on the subject of our local police, while we are enjoying our families and opening our presents today, there are thousands of uniformed officers who are working hard, keeping us safe. If I was a policeman, I would dread working these holidays. People gather inside a home, liquor is consumed, arguments might start as the day progresses and in extreme cases, violence erupts. Police are called to stop the disturbance and often become the enemy, as all sides turn on them.

Of course, then we have the subsequent incidents in Missouri, where some misguided outlaws decided to capitalize on a bad situation by shooting, rioting and looting, destroying their own neighborhood. And just recently, a mentally challenged individual executed two policemen in their squad car, in retaliation for the death of the suspect on the New York street and for the suspect in Missouri.

So the question is, when will we all stop and accept responsibility for actions that sometimes lead to tragedy like this? In the wake of the massacre at the elementary school a couple of years ago, some apparently well-meaning politicians suggested that maybe it was “time for a conversation” on how to combat gun violence. I doubt that was much comfort to the parents of those kids and teachers who were murdered. The “conversation” won't bring them back.

There's another area of accountability and responsibility that has been troubling me recently. We see the commercials for the Humane Society, reminding us we should contribute to help homeless animals. We see commercials for various international aid groups seeking contributions to help the less fortunate here and abroad. Then we are seeing more and more commercials for a few organizations who are supposedly helping “wounded warriors.” Send $19 a month to one group and you will receive a blanket. Meanwhile, your contribution is supposed to help these returning warriors recover from their physical and emotional wounds.

I am mature enough to believe that our armed forces perform noble duties and keep us safe. They don't debate whether what they are doing in far off lands will have a lasting impact on our world. But many of them who are deployed to war zones do see at least a short term impact on the local population and their reward is knowing that they made a difference.

Recently, CNN has done an investigation into what percentage of donations to returning wounded veterans organizations actually go toward the veteran and how much is absorbed in fund raising costs and administrative overhead. The report indicated that some of the groups are spending far less than 50 percent of what they receive to help the returning veterans.

Aside from that, is it really the place of ordinary Americans to donate to ensure that those wounded in action receive prompt care and rehabilitation? If you believe that those who fight for us are true heroes, why won't our government treat them as such? Why so much red tape and delay at VA hospitals? Why isn't the government spending the money on the soldiers instead of donating some big, heavy armored vehicle to a small town police department that can barely afford gas for its two or three patrol car fleet?

If you enlist in the armed forces and serve one or more tours of duty in a combat zone, and come home minus a leg, arm, eye or nightmares that make you wake up nights screaming, your government should show its appreciation with superior and immediate medical care and a pension befitting a returning hero. Leave the pleas for donations from the public for abandoned dogs and cats. Our troops deserve much better treatment than that.

We need to ask some tough questions of our members of Congress. Hold them accountable. Demand that they take responsibility. After all, that's what we are paying them for.

Police situations, another opinion

By Jeff Orvis

Perhaps like never before has the issue of law enforcement been cussed and discussed. An unarmed shoplifting suspect is shot and killed in the street near St. Louis and soon the neighborhood is a powder keg of riots, looting and building burning. A big, unarmed man is approached by law officers in New York. He resists efforts by nearly a half-dozen cops to take him into custody and soon he lays dead on the sidewalk, the victim of an illegal choke hold.

Before the ink is even dry on the t-shirts, hundreds of athletes and others are wearing “hands up, don't shoot” or “I can't breathe” shirts. It's the latest fashion statement. Unfortunately, the statement comes from tragedy.

Social media is soon flooded with accounts of other violence involving law officers. Some of it allegedly stems from what police have done, but a lot of it is informing us of what is done to officers in the line of duty.

Through my former line of work, as well as other personal encounters, I have become acquainted with several local, county, state and federal law enforcement personnel. Having some understanding of what they experience every day, I have a hard time justifying jumping on the t-shirt bandwagon. Because of the availability of cell phones, it's hard to argue with those who feel the man in the New York case was a victim, regardless of what a grand jury might say. The situation in St. Louis is, and will be for some time, up for debate, as “witnesses” suddenly crawled out of the woodwork claiming the suspect was gunned down for no reason. That grand jury believed the officer, who said he felt his life was in danger because the suspect tried to grab his gun.

We expect a lot of our law officers. We send them off to classes, then slap a gun on their hip and expect them to protect us, all for as little as $35,000 a year to start. They are expected to make life and death decisions in a split second sometimes, often after hours of boring little action. They come to our aid seven days a week, every day of the year, in all kinds of weather, often missing or delaying holiday or birthday family celebrations of their own. They represent their city, county, state or nation, so they often have to act as public relations experts, keeping their own emotions in check, regardless of who they encounter.

I remember one time, when we were in church on a Sunday morning and a part-time police officer, since retired, was on duty. There was an ambulance call to our church for someone who had fainted. He came with the ambulance crew, then apologized for wearing a gun in the sanctuary. We quickly were sure to thank him for being there and accepted the fact he had every right to wear his firearm while on duty, even in church.

We are coming into the holiday season, when folks will gather together to celebrate, often with intoxicants. Emotions sometimes run high, resulting in disagreements. Domestic disputes can be some of the most dangerous for officers, who are often expected to keep the peace, even when it soon results in both sides turning on the police officer.

More than once, I've heard mothers of young kids warn them that they had better behave or that policeman over there will arrest them. I'd much rather hear the mother point to the officer and tell her child that he or she is there to protect them if they ever encounter a stranger or get hurt.

More than 99 percent of the time, police officers perform their duties admirably. Some people wonder why so much news has been devoted to the ongoing situations in St. Louis and New York. It's because what happened and what has happened since is news. We have a saying in the news business that while dog bites man may not be news, man bites dog is. It's something that thankfully doesn't happen every day.

I find it a bit amazing that many officers I have known firmly believe in the Second Amendment and the public's right to own guns. You would think their job might be safer if they didn't expect everyone they encounter would be packing heat. We have read of several recent situations where a seemingly routine traffic stop has resulted in a shooting of a police officer. Seems like those of us who are still unarmed are becoming the minority.

Regarding the situation in St. Louis, I have to comment on the morons who decided it would be a good idea to celebrate the grand jury's decision by torching several businesses in their neighborhood, stealing whatever they could carry. Don't they know this is like spitting on the grave of the man they thought was unjustly killed? Don't they realize they are destroying some of the places they shopped, some of them owned by their neighbors? All this did was intensify and prolong the tragedy.

I guess the moral of this rambling piece is the next time you are rolling down the highway and you encounter a policeman on the side of the road, don't mutter some oath. Take your foot off the gas a little. The next time you are stuck in a snowbank on the side of the road or are involved in a traffic accident and a state patrolman or county deputy comes to your aid, say a little prayer of thanks that he or she was there to help.

Hawks are going bowling again. Some first thoughts

By Jeff Orvis

Some immediate thoughts in the wake of the news that Iowa will play Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl on Jan. 2, 2015:

Many fans were disappointed with the Hawks' 7-5 record this season. Coach Kirk Ferentz and the man before him, Hayden Fry, set the bar pretty high over the past 20+ years. This year's team had plenty of promise, with experienced players at many positions and a premed major at quarterback, along with a former Air Force Academy student as the main running back.

My parents instilled in me the gift of optimism. Sometimes it is a hindrance, when you always see the glass as half-full until you are proved wrong. With that in mind, consider the fact that the Hawks had a legitimate chance at winning every game they played, except for that laugher at Minnesota. They were eight total points away from a 10-2 season and 15 points away from an 11-1 campaign. They lost two games by three points each, another by two and a third by a touchdown.

With that in mind, along with the way Hawk fans love to follow their team to bowl games, they were rewarded with a Jan. 2 bowl in Florida against an opponent with a rich tradition.

Before the bowl invitation was received, Athletic Director Gary Barta indicated that he still has full confidence in Ferentz. He is evidently not alone, as the bowl scouts seem to agree. When an AD makes such a statement, some coaches may start packing their bags, as sometimes this is a prelude to a firing.

While I don't think that is the case here, Barta is a man of character. But several factors could still lead to a new coaching staff before next season. If the Hawks don't perform well in the bowl game, there could be trouble. If the fans don't follow their team to Florida with the customary enthusiasm, the handwriting could be on the wall. Or if the frustration displayed by some fans was reflected in a drop in financial support for the program, we all know that money talks in big time athletics. This year's single game ticket prices of $60-$70 spoke a specific language to me: “Not in this lifetime.”

A more remote possibility could be that Ferentz may decide this would be a good time to explore other opportunities. He's said his family likes living in Iowa City. But he and his wife have just one child still in school, Steven, who is completing his third year in the Iowa program. The coach has prior experience as an NFL assistant coach and depending on his level of enthusiasm for the college game, he might entertain offers to move up to the next level as a head coach. Looks like San Francisco could be a real possibility, for instance.

A lot of the talking heads on national TV have said that the Big Ten isn't a premiere football conference this year. But it's interesting that 10 teams from the league are going bowling this year. Not too bad for a weak conference.