Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Fearless prediction time

By Jeff Orvis

Tradition is a great thing. There are a lot of traditions in the world of sports, but maybe none so anticipated as Selection Sunday leading up to the NCAA Men's basketball championship. This past Sunday seemed like an eternity as I waited for the announcement of the 68 teams that made the tournament field. After church, there were a couple of conference championship games, some NASCAR and even a little golf to fill the time until 5 p.m.

In past years, fans of teams in Iowa had to wait to see if their teams qualified for the tourney. This year, it was a bit easier, since all teams had such special seasons, we knew they would all be included. The only suspense came in trying to guess where, when and who they would play in the first round.

Iowa State will kick off the action of local interest when the Cyclones play the University of Alabama-Birmingham on Thursday at 11:40 a.m. That game will be on TruTV, one of four networks carrying the tournament. The Cyclones play at Louisville, which should enable a lot of their incredible fan base to make the road trip. I am first and foremost a Hawkeye fan, but I have to admit that the best fans in the state, by far are the Iowa State fans. When CBS was broadcasting the Big 12 Tourney finals last week from Kansas City, Brent Musberger had one of the best lines I've heard all season when he observed, “The City of Ames is on its feet in Kansas City!” A friend who travels to Kansas City each year for the tournament observed that Interstate 35 should have been renamed Iowa State 35 on the day after the tournament.

Our other two state teams will be playing in Seattle. Northern Iowa, a darkhorse for a Final Four spot, will face Wyoming on Friday at 12:40 p.m. The game will be on TNT. Then at 6:20 p.m., Iowa faces Davidson, also on TNT. Winners from Thursday games will play their second round games on Saturday and the Friday winners play on Sunday.

In a strange twist, if both Iowa and Iowa State win their first two games, they will face each other next week. Don't ask me to explain this. For some unknown reason, the first round games in the South Region will be played in Charlotte, Portland, Louisville and Seattle. First round games in the East Region will be played in Pittsburgh, Columbus, Charlotte and Seattle.

Although it's fun to download brackets and make guesses on who will be the eventual winner, it has been several years since I've had the courage of entering any bracket pools. When I lived in Independence, I would join a community pool, conducted by the former city clerk. By the end of the first weekend, he would stop by my office and thank me for “my donation,” his not-so-subtle hint that I had made enough wrong choices to be well out of the running for the contest.

So while I no longer make the mistake of wagering, it's still fun to guess who might be playing in early April in Indianapolis. Rather than risk making a wrong pick, or the danger of an early upset, I've decided to predict only the first two rounds of the tourney in this writing.

The selection committee appears to have made some safe choices for the top four seeds in the field, as Kentucky, Wisconsin, Villanova and Duke should easily advance to the second round. Iowa, Iowa State and UNI should also be around for weekend play. But out of the first 32 games, there's usually at least one surprise. Based on no scientific reasoning but simply instinct, I am predicting Valparaiso over fourth seed Maryland and Texas over sixth seed Butler.

If our three local teams make it into the second round, I am hoping and predicting that all three will make it into the Sweet 16. That would mean UNI would probably have to upset Louisville and favored Iowa State would have to get by probable SMU. Iowa's advancement would be the biggest news of the second round, as they would no doubt have to beat second seed Gonzaga, which is entering the tourney with a super 32-2 record.

On Monday, the NCAA Women's Championship bracket was announced, which will mean a busy Friday. Iowa State will face Dayton at 11 a.m., followed by Iowa against American at 1:30 p.m. Both games will be on ESPN 2. With the aforementioned UNI and Iowa men's first round games, that means four games with local importance on Friday.

This is an exciting time of the year for those of us who still believe there is some worth in collegiate athletics. As you search the internet for brackets and schedules, keep in mind that most of them list Eastern Time Zone starting times.

I leave you with one true confession: I am glad I live by myself, because it might be a bit embarrassing to see an almost senior citizen get teary-eyed after the final horn of the championship game, as CBS plays “One Shining Moment” as the network shows a collage of highlights of the tourney.

Enjoy the next three weeks. Then we can quickly turn our attention to the Masters Golf Tourney and the Cubs' bid for a World Series appearance.

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